Tracking DC’s Education Recovery: What to Expect from The Nation’s Report Card 2024
As schools across the U.S. work to recover from pandemic-related learning losses, the forthcoming winter release of the National Assessment of Educational Progress (NAEP) results for 2024 will offer crucial insights into the state of education recovery.
Known as The Nation’s Report Card, NAEP serves as a key measure of academic performance by state, tracking large samples of 4th and 8th graders’ math and reading skills every two years and the progress of additional ages and subjects every few years. It provides standardized benchmarks that allow states and participating urban districts to evaluate progress on a national scale.
At the end of 2021-2022, there was growing optimism that the effects of the pandemic had eased, with schools already implementing various strategies to recover. However, two years later, a July 2024 Report from the Northwest Evaluation Association (NWEA) showed that growth during 2023–24 fell short of expectations. According to the report, the gap between pre-COVID and post-COVID test score gaps widened in 2023–24 in nearly all grades by an average of 36% in reading and 18% in math.
As instructional time becomes more critical than ever to bridge opportunity gaps, the report estimates that in order to reach pre-pandemic levels, the average student requires an additional 4.8 months of instruction in reading and 4.3 months in math.
For DC, a city with bold goals in education reform—and at one time one of the fastest-improving states—the upcoming NAEP results will be an important indicator of how its recovery efforts stack up against national trends.
DC’s Progress So Far: Results and Key Trends
As we await the release of the 2024 Nation’s Report Card in Mathematics and Reading for grades 4 and 8, now scheduled for early 2025, the question of how DC is recovering from pandemic-related learning losses remains critical.
DC’s 2022 NAEP results painted a picture of both challenges and gains, showcasing declines compared to pre-pandemic levels but steady improvements over the past two decades. To estimate the 2024 NAEP results, EK12 utilized proficiency distribution data (i.e., percent of students achieving at Level 1, Level 2, etc.) from results in the CAPE/PARCC testing era to predict NAEP average scores. Using this technique, our multivariate regression models were able to predict the NAEP scores within a couple of points for DC, DC Public Schools, and DC Public Charter schools every administration since 2015.
Our predictions show gains in math and reading for 4th and 8th graders since 2022, with scores remaining below 2019 levels in every subject except maybe 8th-grade reading. The graphs and summaries by grade level and subject area below show performance trends for all DC students compared with national and large city averages. Please remember that DC’s 2024 results are predictions, not actual data.
2022 average score: 223, which was 13 points lower than the national average (236)
2022 scores and 2024 projected scores (229) are lower than in 2019 (235) but higher than in 2007 (214)
2022 average score: 260, which was 13 points lower than the national average (273)
2022 scores and 2024 projected scores (263) are lower than in 2019 (269) but higher than in 2007 (248)
2022 average score: 207, which was 10 points lower than the national average (217)
2022 scores and 2024 projected scores (209) are lower than in 2019 (214) but higher than in 2007 (197)
2022 average score: 250, which was 10 points lower than the national average (260).
2022 scores and 2024 projected scores (251) are about the same as 2019 (250) and higher than in 2007 (241)
Learning from Peer Jurisdictions
As educators and policymakers continue to assess student progress post-pandemic, there’s much to be learned from peer districts along the East Coast. Comparative data from these districts can uncover valuable insights when gains differ significantly, highlighting both strengths and areas for growth in DC’s education landscape.
When comparing DC to peer jurisdictions, it’s important to recognize the inherent complexities. Each state has distinct proficiency standards, which can complicate the interpretation of proficiency changes. Historically, big shifts in state-level results have been validated by gains on the common national benchmark, NAEP, so we have confidence in recognizing jurisdictions with larger gains and losses year-over-year.
One of the bright spots in our state’s educational performance is its improvement in English Language Arts (ELA). The DC Comprehensive Assessments of Progress in Education (DC CAPE) results show a 3.2 percentage point increase since 2022 in overall reading scores across most grades and student groups. This places DC near the top of its peer group. To dive deeper into recent results, we invite you to explore our interactive 2024 DC CAPE dashboard.
DC appears to have made more progress in ELA than its peers and finds itself in a more challenging position concerning mathematics. Math scores, which have remained stagnant in 2024, leave the city in the middle of the pack compared to other East Coast jurisdictions in terms of improvement since 2022. Meanwhile, cities like Richmond and New York City demonstrated significant success in math recovery and likely have strategies from which DC can learn.
Editor’s Note:
Stanford and Harvard published an Education Recovery Scorecard that adjusts differences in state tests by utilizing NAEP data to recalibrate each state's proficiency cut score. The Scorecard evaluates changes in test scores from 2019 to 2023 on a common, interpretable scale across 30 states, allowing for more valid comparisons between jurisdictions. While this methodology is beneficial, it’s also essential to combine these insights with additional test data, such as the Northwest Evaluation Association (NWEA) MAP and iReady, to gain a better understanding of student outcomes. DC is not listed in this data. However, EK12 talked with Scorecard researchers and learned that they plan to include DC later this coming spring.
What’s Next for DC’s Education Recovery and 2024 NAEP Results?
Beyond comparing D.C. to other cities, we can also look inward for inspiration. Schools within our own state have demonstrated that meaningful progress is possible.
Recent analysis from EmpowerK12 highlights the change in proficiency rates of economically disadvantaged students. The top quartile of schools averaged 7.5 proficiency point gains in math and ELA in the last two years, compared to a -1.7 point average decline at the bottom quartile. Below are the Top 10 highest gainers in math/reading combined proficiency for economically disadvantaged students since 2022.
EK12’s collaboration with DC schools and charter networks—using data dashboards for schools like the DC Education Recovery Dashboard and EmpowerK12’s DC NAEP Dashboard—helps to track progress for the NAEP results with a detailed view of different student groups, including economically disadvantaged students.
By combining local insights with broader data, DC can continue refining its recovery strategy. The upcoming NAEP results will not only reflect the city’s progress but also provide critical guidance on where additional efforts are needed to ensure no student is left behind.
Further Insight: A Closer Look at NAEP Projections with EK12’s Founder and Executive Director, Josh Boots
What methodology did EK12 use to project DC’s 2024 NAEP scores?
Prior studies have shown that results on the PARCC are strongly correlated with results on the NAEP test. NAEP reports the average student test score in math and reading in grades 4 and 8 for every state and select urban districts. This is different from DC’s public reporting of students by proficiency level for CAPE/PARCC. To account for this difference, we create a multivariate regression model that compares the percentage of students scoring at each CAPE/PARCC performance level with the average NAEP score for each year since 2015, the first PARCC administration. Since we know the 2024 CAPE/PARCC proficiency results by grade level and subject, we can use the model to project what the 2024 NAEP results will look like.
How good are the predictions?
The multivariate model predicts the state’s historical NAEP scores with 1-2 points in both subjects and grade levels each year, so there is high confidence in the predictions for 2024. There remain limitations in the model given small changes in the way both CAPE/PARCC and NAEP were administered last school year. However, we expect those changes are unlikely to produce large deviations in expected results, which show improvement from 2022 and more academic recovery to pre-pandemic levels is required.
